The persistent headwinds that troubled American businesses appear to be shifting toward tailwinds as we approach 2026. A comprehensive new survey of over 400 C-suite executives from Fortune 1000 companies reveals a significant uptick in economic optimism not seen since the pre-pandemic era.
JPMorgan Chase’s latest “Executive Perspective” report indicates 67% of business leaders anticipate moderate to strong growth in 2026, despite navigating through what many described as a “complexity bubble” throughout 2024-2025. This marks a striking reversal from just eighteen months ago, when only 31% expressed similar confidence levels.
“We’re witnessing a fundamental recalibration of growth expectations,” explains Sarah Clemens, Chief Economist at JPMorgan Chase. “The data suggests business leaders have adapted to higher interest rate environments and found innovative pathways to profitability despite persistent inflationary pressures.”
The quarterly survey, which I’ve been tracking for the past decade, carries significant weight in financial circles for its predictive accuracy. Historically, when executive confidence surpasses the 65% threshold, GDP growth has followed within two quarters approximately 76% of the time, according to analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The optimism appears rooted in several converging factors. Nearly 58% of respondents cited technological integration—particularly AI implementation—as substantially boosting productivity metrics across operations. Another 42% pointed to supply chain resilience improvements finally bearing fruit after years of post-pandemic restructuring.
What’s particularly notable in this year’s findings is the regional distribution of confidence. The traditional coastal strongholds no longer monopolize growth expectations. Executives from the Midwest and Mountain regions reported the highest confidence levels (72% and 69% respectively), outpacing the Northeast (63%) and West Coast (61%) for the first time in the survey’s fifteen-year history.
Federal Reserve data corroborates this geographic shift. Manufacturing output across the Midwest jumped 4.2% in Q4 2025, while technology investment in states like Colorado, Utah, and Idaho has doubled since 2023, according to the Commerce Department’s latest regional economic assessment.
“The economic map of America is being redrawn,” notes Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, during last month’s Congressional testimony. “We’re seeing remarkable resilience in regions previously considered economically vulnerable.”
Energy sector transformation appears to be a significant driver. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that renewable energy jobs have expanded at triple the rate of traditional fossil fuel positions, with substantial growth in formerly coal-dependent communities across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky.
Yet significant challenges remain on the horizon. Approximately 52% of surveyed executives identified labor market tightness as their most pressing concern, followed by geopolitical instability (47%) and persistent inflation in service sectors (43%).
The labor market dynamic represents a particularly nuanced challenge. While the unemployment rate has stabilized around 3.8%, workforce participation hasn’t fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. A McKinsey Global Institute analysis suggests this reflects structural rather than cyclical factors, with demographics and changing work preferences creating what they term a “permanent participation gap.”
“We’re competing for talent like never before,” admits Rebecca Thornton, CEO of Midwest manufacturing firm Precision Industries. “The days of simply raising wages to attract workers are gone. We’ve completely reimagined our entire employee value proposition, from flexible scheduling to career development pathways.”
Capital investment intentions also signal confidence, with 61% of executives planning to increase expenditures in 2026 compared to 2025 levels. This represents the highest forward-looking investment appetite since 2018, according to Goldman Sachs Research’s comparative analysis.
“What’s particularly encouraging is that these aren’t merely replacement investments,” explains Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. “Our conversations with clients indicate these are predominantly growth-oriented capital expenditures aimed at capacity expansion and new market entry.”
The technology sector continues driving optimism despite recent volatility. While tech stocks experienced significant corrections throughout 2025, fundamentals appear increasingly sound. Enterprise technology spending intentions registered at their highest level in five years, with 73% of respondents planning increased technology budgets.
This dichotomy between stock performance and fundamental business outlook isn’t unprecedented. Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research demonstrates that periods of tech stock corrections often precede acceleration in actual business technology adoption, as valuations realign with realistic implementation timelines.
International exposure remains a double-edged sword. Companies deriving more than 40% of revenue from international markets expressed slightly lower confidence (59%) than their domestically-focused counterparts (71%). This gap reflects ongoing uncertainty in key markets, particularly China, where structural economic challenges persist.
“The China question continues creating strategic dilemmas,” notes Christopher Miller, author of “Chip Wars” and foreign policy expert. “Companies are pursuing what might be called ‘selective decoupling’—maintaining Chinese market presence while diversifying supply chains and innovation networks elsewhere.”
Perhaps most surprising in the survey was the resilience of small business optimism. The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index reached 103.5 in December 2025—its highest reading since 2019. This convergence of small business and large enterprise confidence represents a rare alignment historically associated with sustainable economic expansions.
As we navigate toward 2026, the path contains both promise and pitfalls. The transition from economic turbulence to opportunity appears increasingly tangible, though far from guaranteed. What distinguishes this moment is the adaptability businesses have demonstrated—incorporating lessons from pandemic disruptions, inflation battles, and geopolitical realignments into more resilient operational models.
“American business has always thrived on adaptation,” reflects Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO, in his annual letter to shareholders. “The challenges of recent years haven’t disappeared, but they’ve created the conditions for the next wave of innovation and growth.”
The economic narrative for 2026 continues unfolding, but the voices of those steering America’s business community suggest the next chapter may be one of renewed growth and opportunity. Whether this optimism translates into sustained economic expansion remains the question that will define the coming year.
