Americans are growing increasingly anxious about their financial futures, according to the latest New York Fed household financial survey released last week. The November 2025 data paints a concerning picture of rising household stress levels amid persistent inflation and growing job market uncertainties.
I’ve spent the past week analyzing the survey results, which reveal a marked shift in consumer sentiment compared to earlier this year. Having attended the Fed’s virtual press briefing on Thursday, it was clear that even the economists presenting the findings were caught off guard by the severity of the decline in household confidence.
The survey, which polled over 1,300 households nationwide, found that 47% of Americans now report being “somewhat” or “very” concerned about their ability to meet essential expenses over the next six months—up from 38% in the May 2025 survey. This 9-percentage point jump represents the largest increase in financial anxiety since the pandemic-era surveys of 2020.
“These results signal a potential inflection point in consumer resilience,” explained Claudia Wilson, Director of Household Economics Research at the New York Fed. “After several quarters of relatively stable outlook data, we’re seeing meaningful deterioration across multiple financial well-being metrics.”
Perhaps most troubling is the growing pessimism about employment stability. The survey indicates that the average perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months rose to 17.8%, up from 14.2% in the previous quarter. This shift aligns with recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing modest but consistent increases in initial unemployment claims over the past four months.
Inflation expectations are similarly discouraging. Households now anticipate a 4.2% inflation rate over the coming year, a significant increase from the 3.7% expected in August. This expectation mismatch creates a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve as it tries to manage both inflation concerns and growing signs of labor market cooling.
The housing market outlook has also darkened considerably. A record 62% of respondents believe their local housing markets are overvalued and due for correction—a sentiment particularly pronounced among millennials and Gen Z respondents who continue to face significant barriers to homeownership.
Credit access concerns have intensified as well. The survey found that 31% of households reported either being denied credit or being discouraged from applying over the past quarter. This represents a five-point increase from earlier this year and suggests tightening lending conditions are beginning to impact household financial flexibility.
When I spoke with Martin Fernandez, chief economist at Meridian Economics, he emphasized the survey’s implications for holiday spending. “These numbers suggest we’re likely to see a more restrained holiday shopping season than retailers have planned for,” Fernandez noted. “Households are clearly shifting toward precautionary saving at a time when many businesses were anticipating stronger consumer spending.”
Regional variations in the data tell an important story too. Midwestern respondents reported considerably more optimism than their coastal counterparts, with only 39% expressing serious financial concerns compared to 53% in the Northeast and 51% in the West. This geographic disparity likely reflects differences in housing costs and regional industry structures.
Breaking down the data by income brackets reveals further inequality in financial outlook. While 37% of households earning above $100,000 annually reported financial concerns, this figure jumps to a troubling 64% among those earning under $50,000. This 27-point gap highlights how economic uncertainty disproportionately affects lower-income Americans.
The survey did contain some positive findings. Retirement contribution rates have remained relatively stable, with 56% of working-age respondents maintaining or increasing their retirement savings despite broader financial anxieties. Additionally, emergency savings buffers, while under pressure, haven’t yet shown significant depletion among middle-income households.
Looking ahead, the New York Fed researchers indicate these findings may influence upcoming policy discussions. “When household financial stress rises at this pace, it typically precedes broader economic shifts that warrant policy attention,” Wilson noted during the press briefing.
For everyday Americans, the survey underscores the importance of financial preparation heading into 2026. With uncertainty growing, building emergency reserves and reducing high-interest debt could provide crucial financial flexibility if economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
The next New York Fed household survey will be released in February 2026, offering an important data point on whether these concerning trends represent a temporary blip or the beginning of a more sustained period of household financial stress. Until then, these November findings suggest that many Americans are buckling up for potentially challenging economic times ahead.
