Pennsylvania Swing Voters Cite Economic Strain as Deciding Factor in 2024 Election
The gravel driveway crunches under my tires as I pull up to Mark Kowalski’s modest ranch-style home in Beaver County, Pennsylvania. A Trump 2024 sign stands beside a weather-worn American flag in his front yard. Inside, at his kitchen table, the 58-year-old former union electrician explains why he’s voting Republican despite a lifetime supporting Democrats.
“My electric bill is up 32% since 2021. Groceries cost nearly double. And don’t get me started on what I’m paying for gas,” Kowalski says, sliding his utility statements across the table. “I don’t love everything about Trump, but at least under him I could afford to live.“
This sentiment echoes throughout my three-week reporting tour across Pennsylvania’s critical swing districts, where pocketbook concerns are dominating voter decisions ahead of November’s presidential election.
Economic Reality Shapes Electoral Landscape
Pennsylvania voters face a complex economic picture. While national unemployment remains low at 3.8% according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, inflation has outpaced wage growth in key sectors. The Consumer Price Index for the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area shows a 12.7% cumulative increase in consumer prices since January 2021.
Dr. Elaine Kamarck, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, explains the disconnect: “Macroeconomic indicators suggest recovery, but microeconomic experiences—what people feel at the checkout counter—tell a different story. This perception gap is politically consequential.“
In Washington County, Sarah Jenkins, 42, a registered independent who voted for Biden in 2020, reflects this trend. “I’m working more hours but somehow have less money,” she says, showing me her family budget spreadsheet with highlighted sections where expenses have increased. “My husband and I are both employed full-time, but we’ve had to cut back on retirement savings just to make ends meet.”
The Numbers Behind Voter Sentiment
Pennsylvania Department of Labor data reveals that while nominal wages in the state have risen approximately 11% since 2021, real purchasing power has declined when adjusted for inflation. For middle-income households, this translates to approximately $3,200 less in annual purchasing power.
I met with Chris Borick, Director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, who shared unpublished polling data showing 67% of Pennsylvania voters rank economic concerns as their top priority—significantly higher than immigration (42%), democracy (39%), or abortion rights (34%).
“The affordability crisis transcends traditional partisan divides,” Borick notes. “We’re seeing unusually high numbers of voters willing to cross party lines based solely on economic self-interest.”
Beyond Partisan Narratives
The economic strain crosses demographic boundaries. In traditionally Democratic Scranton, auto mechanic Theresa Mendoza, 35, voted for Biden in 2020 but remains undecided this cycle.
“I’m a single mom with two kids. My grocery bill went from $120 a week to nearly $200 for the same items,” Mendoza tells me as we walk through a local supermarket. She points to a carton of eggs priced at $4.29. “These were $1.89 before the pandemic.”
Economist Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute provided me with an analysis showing Pennsylvania households are particularly vulnerable to inflation due to the state’s higher-than-average proportion of fixed-income retirees and working-class families.
“Pennsylvania’s economic composition makes its voters especially sensitive to price increases in basic necessities,” Strain explains via phone interview. “When essentials like food, housing, and energy experience disproportionate price growth, it creates electoral volatility.”
Trump’s Economic Messaging Resonates
The Trump campaign has capitalized on these concerns. At a recent rally in Erie County, which I attended, economic grievances dominated both the formal speeches and conversations among attendees.
“They’re feeling it everywhere—at the gas pump, at the grocery store, when they pay their bills,” said Republican Senator Tim Scott to enthusiastic applause. “Americans know who had the better economy.”
This messaging appears effective even among voters who acknowledge negative aspects of Trump’s character or policies. In Bucks County, Jennifer Wilson, 47, a retail manager who described herself as socially liberal, told me, “I don’t agree with his rhetoric or his stance on abortion, but my family is drowning financially. Sometimes you have to vote with your wallet.“
Democratic Countermeasures Fall Short
The Biden administration has attempted to highlight positive economic indicators—job creation, manufacturing investments, and infrastructure improvements. But my conversations with dozens of voters suggest these messages aren’t breaking through.
“I know they say the economy is good on paper, but that’s not what I’m experiencing,” says Miguel Rodriguez, 52, a construction supervisor in Lehigh Valley. “My crews are working steadily, but everyone’s complaining about costs. No one feels like they’re getting ahead.”
Democratic strategist James Carville, speaking to me on background, acknowledged the challenge: “When people are paying $150 to fill their fridge with the same groceries that cost $100 three years ago, macroeconomic statistics don’t matter. The lived experience trumps the data every time.“
Implications Beyond 2024
These economic anxieties could reshape Pennsylvania’s political landscape beyond the presidential race. Down-ballot candidates from both parties are increasingly adopting populist economic messages.
“We’re witnessing a realignment where class increasingly trumps culture,” observes Terry Madonna, Senior Fellow in Residence for Political Affairs at Millersville University. “The party that convincingly addresses affordability concerns could dominate Pennsylvania politics for a generation.”
As I prepare to leave Beaver County, Kowalski walks me to my car. “Tell them in Washington that we’re not complicated,” he says. “We just want to afford our lives again without working ourselves to death. Whoever promises that—and seems like they mean it—gets my vote.”
The sentiment lingers as I drive away, a powerful reminder that in 2024, Pennsylvania voters may be casting their ballots not for a party or personality, but for the promise of economic relief.
