As Capitol Hill buzzes with late-night negotiations, House Republicans are scrambling to secure votes for their controversial tax bill ahead of Wednesday’s scheduled floor vote. The legislation, strongly endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has become a critical test of party unity during this midterm election year.
Behind closed doors, moderate Republicans from high-tax states are pushing for significant changes to the bill’s provisions on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Three sources familiar with the discussions tell me these lawmakers are demanding a higher cap than the current $10,000 limit implemented in the 2017 Trump tax law.
“We’re not just going to roll over on this,” said Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) during a brief hallway interview yesterday. “Our constituents in New York, New Jersey, and California are still feeling the squeeze from the last round of tax changes.”
The bill would extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire next year. These include lower individual tax rates, an expanded child tax credit, and the controversial $10,000 SALT deduction cap. Without congressional action, these provisions will sunset in 2025.
Trump publicly endorsed the legislation during a rally in Pennsylvania last weekend. “We need these tax cuts made permanent,” he told supporters. “It’s how we built the greatest economy America has ever seen, and it’s how we’ll do it again.”
According to data from the Tax Foundation, extending these provisions would cost approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade if not offset by other revenue measures. Democratic critics have seized on this figure, highlighting potential impacts on the federal deficit.
I’ve covered tax legislation battles since the Bush administration, and this scenario feels eerily familiar. The Republican leadership faces a delicate balancing act between fiscal hawks concerned about deficit impacts and moderates worried about constituent backlash in suburban districts where the SALT cap remains deeply unpopular.
House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) remains publicly confident. “We’re having productive conversations with our members,” Smith told me yesterday while hurrying between meetings. “This bill delivers on our promise to make permanent the historic tax relief that helped create unprecedented economic growth.”
The Congressional Budget Office hasn’t yet released a complete score for the legislation. However, preliminary estimates suggest the bill could add approximately $3.2 trillion to federal deficits through 2035 without additional growth factors considered.
Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), who chairs the Republican Study Committee, acknowledged the deficit concerns in our conversation yesterday. “Growth is the answer,” Hern said. “When Americans keep more of their hard-earned money, they invest it back into our economy, creating jobs and generating new tax revenue.”
Democratic leadership has unified against the bill. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called it “fiscally reckless” during a press conference yesterday. “Republicans are once again trying to sell Americans on failed trickle-down economics while setting up future cuts to Social Security and Medicare,” Jeffries said.
The negotiations highlight broader tensions within the Republican conference about economic policy. Supply-side economics remains the dominant philosophy, but a growing faction emphasizes working-class concerns over corporate priorities.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen released a statement yesterday urging Congress to reject the legislation. “This approach would undermine the historic economic progress we’ve made and threaten critical investments in America’s future,” Yellen wrote, according to a Treasury Department press release.
Outside conservative groups have mobilized to pressure wavering Republicans. The Club for Growth launched a six-figure ad campaign targeting moderate House Republicans who’ve expressed concerns about the bill’s fiscal impact. “Americans deserve permanent tax relief, not Washington’s usual tax-and-spend approach,” the organization’s president said in a statement.
Walking through the Capitol yesterday evening, I noticed unusual activity for a Monday night. Lights remained on in leadership offices well past 10 p.m., with staffers carrying folders between meetings – a telltale sign of intense negotiations.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) needs near-unanimous Republican support to pass the legislation, given their narrow majority and expected unified Democratic opposition. Johnson has personally engaged in negotiations with members from high-tax states, according to a senior Republican aide not authorized to speak publicly.
“The Speaker understands the delicate balance here,” the aide told me. “We’re working toward solutions that maintain our core principles while addressing legitimate regional concerns.”
The Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that about 70% of the bill’s benefits would flow to households earning over $100,000 annually. This statistic has become a rallying point for progressive critics who characterize the legislation as skewed toward wealthier Americans.
For more information on this developing story, visit our Politics section or follow our continuous coverage of tax policy debates.
Whether this legislation ultimately passes remains uncertain. But what’s clear is that tax policy continues to define one of America’s most consequential political dividing lines – with implications that will extend far beyond this week’s vote.
