The evolving dance between neighbors hasn’t always been smooth, but few diplomatic relationships face more uncertainty than Canada-U.S. ties if Donald Trump returns to the White House this November.
Having covered Capitol Hill for nearly two decades, I’ve witnessed firsthand how international relationships can shift dramatically with each administration change. The potential second Trump presidency presents unique challenges for our northern neighbor that deserve closer examination.
“Trump views everything through a transactional lens,” explains Dr. Laura Dawson, former director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center. During our conversation last week, she emphasized how this approach fundamentally clashes with Canada’s multilateral diplomatic tradition. “When Trump says ‘America First,’ Canada hears ‘Canada Last,'” she noted.
The first Trump administration introduced steep tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel in 2018, citing national security concerns that baffled many policy experts. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the move “insulting and unacceptable” at the time, sparking one of the most tense periods in modern U.S.-Canada relations.
Trade remains the beating heart of this cross-border relationship. Canada and the U.S. exchange approximately $2.5 billion in goods and services daily, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. This commercial integration has created the world’s largest trading relationship, supporting millions of jobs on both sides.
During a campaign stop in Michigan last month, Trump threatened new tariffs on Canadian auto parts. “We’re getting killed at the border,” he claimed, despite economists pointing to a relatively balanced trade relationship. The U.S. Census Bureau data shows America actually maintained a $41.8 billion trade surplus with Canada in 2023.
I remember standing in a chilly Ottawa press room in 2019 as Canadian officials struggled to explain Trump’s negotiation tactics to puzzled reporters. The uncertainty created ripple effects throughout Canada’s economy. Now that same uncertainty looms again.
“Canada is preparing contingency plans for various election outcomes,” a senior Canadian diplomat told me under condition of anonymity. “But there’s genuine concern about unpredictability.”
The energy sector represents another flashpoint. Trump’s previous support for the Keystone XL pipeline, which President Biden canceled, could resurrect that controversial project. Canadian officials privately express optimism about this possibility, even as they worry about other aspects of Trump’s energy policy.
The border itself might face new pressures. Trump has suggested deploying military forces to stem migration across the U.S.-Mexico border. Whether similar hardline tactics might extend northward remains unclear, though any changes would impact millions who cross the world’s longest undefended border daily.
“The rhetoric about borders and immigration has changed the atmosphere,” says Sarah Goldfeder, former U.S. diplomat now with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. “Even without policy changes, just the tone shifts relationships.”
What makes the current moment unique is the concurrent leadership change potentially happening in Canada. Prime Minister Trudeau faces historically low approval ratings, with elections required by October 2025. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre currently leads in polls by significant margins, according to CBC’s Poll Tracker.
“A Poilievre-Trump relationship might actually work better,” suggests Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute. “They share similar views on energy development and regulatory approaches.”
The defense relationship adds another layer of complexity. Canada has consistently fallen short of NATO’s goal for members to spend 2% of GDP on defense, a sore point during Trump’s first term. During a NATO summit in 2018, I watched as Trump publicly berated allies over defense spending while Canadian officials shifted uncomfortably in their seats.
Climate policy represents perhaps the starkest potential reversal. Canada has aligned closely with the Biden administration on emissions reduction targets
