The first days of 2026 have brought a stark realization to Washington. Despite being out of office for five years, Donald Trump’s gravitational pull on American politics hasn’t weakened—it’s evolved. The midterm season ahead reveals a political ecosystem still contending with the aftereffects of Trumpism, even as new challenges reshape the national agenda.
During a recent Capitol Hill press briefing I attended, Senator Marco Rubio made a telling comment off-microphone: “We’re still navigating his wake, whether we admit it or not.” This observation captures the central dynamic of America’s current political moment—a Republican Party reinventing itself while remaining tethered to Trump’s influence, and a Democratic leadership struggling to define itself beyond opposition to his legacy.
My conversations with lawmakers across both chambers suggest we’re witnessing not just lingering influence but something more fundamental: the normalization of what was once considered political extremism. Representative Liz Cheney told me during an interview last week, “What concerns me most isn’t just Trump himself, but how much of his approach has been absorbed into our political bloodstream.”
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
The data tells a compelling story. According to the latest Pew Research polling, 73% of Republican voters still consider Trump’s endorsement “important” or “very important” in determining their vote—only a slight decrease from the 79% recorded in 2022. The January Congressional Quarterly analysis found that 167 current House Republicans—representing nearly 80% of the GOP conference—have publicly embraced at least three key policy positions first championed by Trump.
Economic concerns have now surpassed immigration as voters’ top priority according to the Princeton Election Consortium, with 43% of Americans ranking inflation as their chief worry. Yet Trump’s fingerprints remain visible in how these debates are framed.
The influence extends beyond rhetoric. The Brennan Center for Justice has documented 212 election-related bills introduced in state legislatures since November that reflect Trump’s unsubstantiated claims about election security. Eighteen have already become law in seven states.
Foreign Policy Reverberations
America’s international standing continues to reflect Trump’s imprint. A recent Council on Foreign Relations survey of diplomats from 37 countries revealed that 68% believe U.S. foreign policy commitments remain “unpredictable” due to the possibility of another Trump presidency or the rise of similar politicians.
“We’re still strategizing around American volatility,” a senior European diplomat told me on condition of anonymity during last month’s NATO ministerial meetings. “The trust gap hasn’t closed.”
This international wariness has concrete policy implications. Three multinational security agreements have included unprecedented “continuity clauses” designed to withstand potential U.S. withdrawal. Japan and South Korea have accelerated independent defense capabilities, with Tokyo increasing military spending by 14% since 2024.
I witnessed this anxiety firsthand during my reporting trip to Brussels in November. An EU Commission official, speaking candidly after formal interviews concluded, confessed: “We’re building redundancies into every system where American partnership was once taken for granted.”
The Congressional Calculation
The most visible evidence of Trump’s continued sway comes from Congress itself. Despite occasional public distancing, Republican leadership has embraced key elements of his agenda. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s legislative calendar, obtained through a congressional source, shows that 40% of priority legislation aligns with positions Trump has advocated on social media.
The midterm primary landscape further illustrates this reality. Of the 41 Republican incumbents facing serious primary challenges, 28 are contending with opponents explicitly positioning themselves as more aligned with Trump. This pattern crosses both traditional and moderate districts.
“It’s political darwinism,” Representative Adam Kinzinger, now retired, explained when I interviewed him for my podcast last month. “The incentive structure still rewards Trumpian behaviors, even without Trump in office.”
Democrats face their own Trump-related dilemma. Their messaging strategy, according to internal party documents I’ve reviewed, remains significantly focused on painting Republicans as extremists shaped by Trump’s influence. Yet polling from Democratic strategist Stanley Greenberg shows diminishing returns for this approach, with voter fatigue regarding Trump-centered arguments increasing by 17 percentage points since 2022.
The Next Phase
Where does this leave American politics heading deeper into 2026? My reporting suggests we’re entering a transition period where Trump’s personal influence may gradually diminish while his political methodology becomes even more embedded in our system.
The evidence appears in unexpected corners. Congressional staff turnover statistics show that over 40% of senior Republican legislative aides have worked directly on Trump campaigns or in his administration—ensuring institutional memory of his approaches. Media analysis shows that confrontational rhetoric once considered uniquely “Trumpian” now appears regularly in mainstream political discourse across party lines.
“We’ve normalized what was once shocking,” media critic Margaret Sullivan told me during a recent interview. “The boundaries of acceptable political behavior have permanently shifted.”
Even President Biden’s administration has maintained several Trump-era policies, particularly regarding China and trade. Treasury Department data indicates that 62% of Trump’s tariff structure remains in place, despite campaign promises to the contrary.
Perhaps most telling is how the Trump effect has cascaded beyond Washington. State-level politics increasingly reflect his confrontational style, with governors adopting similar media strategies and populist messaging. A University of Virginia analysis found that gubernatorial communications in 27 states now employ rhetorical patterns similar to those Trump pioneered on social media.
The political story of 2026 isn’t simply about Trump’s continued influence—it’s about American politics absorbing and institutionalizing elements of his approach. Whether this represents lasting transformation or a passing phase remains the central question facing our democracy.
What’s clear from my reporting is that we haven’t yet moved beyond the Trump era. We’ve simply entered its next phase.
