A growing chorus of Texas executives is sounding the alarm about potential economic damage from former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies. The uncertainty has created ripples across the Lone Star State’s business community, with many leaders expressing serious concerns about how new trade barriers could undermine their operations.
According to a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, nearly 70% of Texas business executives believe Trump’s proposed tariffs would harm their companies. These findings reveal widespread anxiety among industry leaders who fear disruptions to supply chains that have taken decades to build.
“We’ve spent years developing efficient global supply networks,” said Maria Gonzalez, CEO of Texas-based manufacturing firm GlobaLink Industries. “Sudden tariff increases would force difficult choices – either absorb huge new costs or pass them to consumers. Neither option looks good for business growth.”
The proposed tariffs, which could reach up to 60% on Chinese imports and at least 10% on goods from all trading partners, would hit Texas particularly hard. The state led the nation with $352.4 billion in exports last year, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Mexico accounts for about 40% of those exports, making Texas especially vulnerable to retaliatory measures.
Energy sector executives appear most concerned. Texas dominates U.S. oil and gas production, with the industry supporting more than 400,000 jobs across the state. International markets have become crucial for Texas energy companies seeking to expand their customer base beyond domestic consumers.
“Our ability to compete globally depends on fair access to markets,” noted James Wilson, an energy consultant who works with several Houston-based oil companies. “New tariffs would likely trigger countermeasures from trading partners, potentially closing doors to Texas energy exports at the worst possible time.”
The automotive industry faces similar challenges. Toyota’s manufacturing facility in San Antonio, which employs over 3,000 workers, relies heavily on parts sourced from Mexico and other countries. Company representatives have privately expressed concern that tariff-induced price increases could reduce vehicle sales and potentially lead to workforce reductions.
Smaller businesses may face even greater risks. A study from the Federal Reserve found that small and medium enterprises typically lack the financial reserves to weather significant trade disruptions. Many Texas small business owners worry they won’t survive a prolonged trade conflict.
“I run a family business importing specialty foods,” said Carlos Mendez, owner of Austin-based Taste of the World Market. “My margins are already tight. A 10% tariff would basically erase our profits. A 20% tariff might put us out of business entirely.”
Agricultural producers share these worries. Texas ranks fourth nationally in agricultural exports, with cotton, beef, and grain shipments generating billions in annual revenue. When previous tariffs sparked trade tensions in 2018, retaliatory measures from China and other countries targeted these exports, causing significant financial strain for Texas farmers.
“We’re still recovering from the last round of trade disputes,” explained Jennifer Lawson, a third-generation cotton farmer from the Panhandle region. “Another trade war could be devastating. We simply can’t afford to lose more international customers.”
Economic experts warn that tariffs often function as regressive taxes, disproportionately impacting lower-income households. Research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggests that previous tariff increases raised costs for the average American family by approximately $1,300 annually.
While some manufacturing executives support tariffs as protection against foreign competition, many economists question their effectiveness. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank found that tariffs implemented between 2018 and 2019 contributed to manufacturing job losses rather than gains, as higher input costs reduced competitiveness.
“The economic evidence is pretty clear,”
